Ask for 2 at about 15 lb each. Stagger the start times so they don't all hit the stall together.
Assumes 30 adults, brisket plated as the main dish, a couple of sides, no leftovers.
Thirty people means two packers minimum and a real timeline. Plated, thirty adults need 15 pounds cooked and 30 pounds raw. Most home smokers hold two packers if you're willing to rotate them, and rotating is not optional — the rack nearest the firebox will run 15 to 25 degrees hotter than the far end. Stagger your start times by an hour so both briskets don't hit the stall together and stall your whole schedule with them. If half the crowd is kids, recalculate. Ten kids and twenty adults is a meaningfully smaller cook than thirty adults.
The math, worked out
Every number on this page comes from the same two steps. Here it is longhand for 30 adults eating brisket as the main dish:
2. Raw weight to buy (about 50% is lost to trimming and cooking) 15 lbs × 2 = 30 lbs raw
Want leftovers? Add 15 percent and buy 34.5 lbs instead — that's about 8 extra meals once the party's over.
30 people, by how you're serving
Serving style moves this number more than anything except sides. Here's all three, with and without a full spread of side dishes:
Raw brisket needed for 30 adults by serving style and number of sides
Serving style
Per adult
Few sides
Full spread
Cut to buy
Plated main
0.5 lb
30 lbs
24 lbs
2 whole packers
Sandwiches
0.33 lb
20 lbs
16 lbs
2 whole packers
Big BBQ eaters
0.75 lb
45 lbs
36 lbs
3 whole packers
All weights are raw, untrimmed pounds — what you hand to the butcher. "Full spread" means three or more substantial sides.
If some of your 30 are kids
Kids eat about a quarter pound of cooked brisket each, half what a plated adult puts away, and they fill up on sides and rolls faster than you expect. Swapping four adults for four kids in a group of 30 takes roughly 2 lbs off your raw weight. Worth doing properly rather than guessing —put your real split into the calculator.
Not exactly 30 guests?
The calculator handles any headcount, plus kids, sides, and leftovers, and updates as you type.