Ask for 3 at about 13.5 lb each. Stagger the start times so they don't all hit the stall together.
Assumes 40 adults, brisket plated as the main dish, a couple of sides, no leftovers.
Forty guests is the line where home cooking becomes catering, whether or not you call it that. Forty adults plated need 20 pounds cooked and 40 pounds raw — three packers, realistically, because you should never plan to serve every last ounce. At this size, buy your briskets from the same case on the same day if you can. Packers vary enormously in thickness and fat cap, and three from one lot will cook far closer to each other than three collected over two weeks. Sides are no longer optional at forty; they're what makes the math survivable.
The math, worked out
Every number on this page comes from the same two steps. Here it is longhand for 40 adults eating brisket as the main dish:
2. Raw weight to buy (about 50% is lost to trimming and cooking) 20 lbs × 2 = 40 lbs raw
Want leftovers? Add 15 percent and buy 46 lbs instead — that's about 10 extra meals once the party's over.
40 people, by how you're serving
Serving style moves this number more than anything except sides. Here's all three, with and without a full spread of side dishes:
Raw brisket needed for 40 adults by serving style and number of sides
Serving style
Per adult
Few sides
Full spread
Cut to buy
Plated main
0.5 lb
40 lbs
32 lbs
3 whole packers
Sandwiches
0.33 lb
26.5 lbs
21.5 lbs
2 whole packers
Big BBQ eaters
0.75 lb
60 lbs
48 lbs
4 whole packers
All weights are raw, untrimmed pounds — what you hand to the butcher. "Full spread" means three or more substantial sides.
If some of your 40 are kids
Kids eat about a quarter pound of cooked brisket each, half what a plated adult puts away, and they fill up on sides and rolls faster than you expect. Swapping four adults for four kids in a group of 40 takes roughly 2 lbs off your raw weight. Worth doing properly rather than guessing —put your real split into the calculator.
Not exactly 40 guests?
The calculator handles any headcount, plus kids, sides, and leftovers, and updates as you type.